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Properly, it’s official. I stink. I used to be 4-12 towards the unfold final week as I frantically combined dangerous choices and dangerous luck like a Benihana chef. The Bears and Patriots got here up simply brief, Lovie Smith owns me and the Vikings did it to me once more, profitable however not overlaying by a degree for the second straight week.
At the least Chargers coach Brandon Staley was attempting to get the Colts cowl for me on Monday evening. He’s the most effective, going for it on fourth down up 10-3 within the third quarter towards a workforce that may’t rating. The Chargers transformed and bought the win and canopy, however’s arduous to have a lot religion in Staley and the Chargers come playoff time — even with the return of Mike Williams and the increase that it gave Justin Herbert.
We’re rolling with the Dolphins over the Patriots, Eagles over the Saints, Giants over the Colts and (double-take) the Cardinals over the Falcons as our greatest bets this week. What do we have now to lose in addition to extra of our pleasure?
Final week: 4-12 towards the unfold. There shall be no miracle end to .500. Simply loads of powerful losses, very like the Raiders workforce I comply with round. Perhaps it’s contagious.
Season document: 109-126-5 ATS (Performs of the week have been 1-3 final week and 20-25-3 general)
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the choose was made. Click here for dwell odds.
GO DEEPER
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The Titans couldn’t defend Malik Willis towards the Texans final week, and now they get the Cowboys. Plus, the sport doesn’t imply something to Tennessee, as they are going to be taking part in the Jaguars for the AFC South title subsequent week and can probably be resting Derrick Henry, who’s doubtful with a hip injury.
Amongst QBs who’ve began three or extra video games in a season since 2000, Willis has averaged the fewest go makes an attempt per begin (16.33) and passing yards per begin (78). He additionally has the third-worst EPA per dropback out of these 500 QB seasons that includes three-plus begins.
Whereas the Cowboys’ pass rush has actually hit a snag of late, their offense has hit its stride. They rank first in factors per drive (3.02) since their bye week, after rating seventeenth (1.93) earlier than the bye.
The choose: Cowboys -11
Tip of the cap to J.J. Watt, who is going out while still playing well. His 9 1/2 sacks are his most since 2018, and he’s tied for eleventh amongst defensive linemen in tackles for losses that aren’t sacks (6) and sixth in passes defensed.
He shall be chasing down Falcons rookie QB Desmond Ridder, who may be very uncooked however at the very least is aware of who his go-to man is. Rookie receiver Drake London has accounted for 35.1 % of the Falcons’ targets in Ridder’s two begins. The following closest Falcon is Olamide Zaccheaus at 17.5 %. The Falcons are still trying, by the way.
Quarterback Colt McCoy cleared the concussion protocol and is again for the Cardinals. That and a good protection ought to be sufficient to offer Watt one final win.
The choose: Cardinals +3.5
The Lions got here crashing again all the way down to earth final week, as they have been steamrolled by the Panthers. The Bears also needs to be capable to run all day on the Lions just like the Panthers did.
And the Lions’ working sport, in the meantime, has gotten dangerous. Since Week 9, they rank twenty fifth in EPA/rush, twenty first in speeding success fee (36.4 %) and twenty seventh in yards earlier than contact/rush (1.27). Evaluate that to ninth in EPA/rush, twelfth in speeding success fee (41.7 %) and third in yards earlier than contact/rush (2.14) from Weeks 1 by way of 8.
Amon-Ra St. Brown will probably shred the Bears secondary, however we’re nonetheless taking the factors. The Bears — who have made some big moves this season under new GM Ryan Poles — owe us for final week, staying shut towards the Bills till the very finish.
The choose: Bears +6
Are we positive Russell Wilson was wholesome when he got here again to play the Rams on Christmas? He regarded horrible after having made some strides towards the Chiefs three weeks in the past. The embarrassing loss to the Rams was the feather that broke Nathanial Hackett’s again and the over-his-head coach was lastly fired. Wilson was sorry he didn’t play better for him.
The Chiefs lastly coated a giant level unfold final week (they have been 0-3 as double-digit favorites). Since their Week 8 bye, the Chiefs rank seventeenth in defensive DVOA. Earlier than that, they ranked twenty sixth. Throughout the Patrick Mahomes period, the most effective a Kansas Metropolis protection has ever completed in defensive DVOA is 14th in 2019.
Make it two huge covers in a row for great pass blocker Orlando Brown Jr. and the Chiefs.
The choose: Chiefs -12.5
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Tua Tagovailoa is out with another concussion, and that’s fairly scary stuff. Teddy Bridgewater has been OK when he has performed and he has some good weapons to work with. The Dolphins are the twentieth workforce ever to have two receivers achieve 1,260 yards and Tyreek Hill has been a part of three of these duos, per Soccer Perspective. (The 2018 Chiefs and 2020 Chiefs are the opposite two.)
Mac Jones, in the meantime, shall be screaming at his coaches and teammates regardless of being mediocre himself. He ranks ninth in go makes an attempt on performs that includes a WR/TE display screen (63), however he’s nineteenth in yards/try (5.41) and EPA/dropback on these performs. Maybe Bill O’Brien can save the day. Yeah, I typed that sentence.
The choose: Dolphins +3
Colts followers thought it couldn’t worsen than hiring a man as coach off his sofa with solely highschool expertise. Properly, that man, Jeff Saturday, performed a mummified man at quarterback final week who both bought sacked or threw interceptions. Man, Nick Foles was terrible. (Then again, he never expected to play.)
The Colts now rank final within the NFL in level differential (-109; -7.27 per sport). Since 2000, solely two Colts groups have had a worse level differential on a per-game foundation: 2017 (-8.81) and 2011 (-11.69).
Solely Josh McDaniels has misplaced to Saturday and the Colts, and Brian Daboll is not any McDaniels. And Derek Carr is no Danny Dimes.
The choose: Giants -6
It doesn’t seem like Jalen Hurts shall be again and it doesn’t matter. Gardner Minshew was fantastic final week in an in depth loss to the Cowboys, and the Saints are worse and have a banged-up secondary.
Minshew would possibly get pressured greater than you assume due to the absence of Lane Johnson (who shall be again for the playoffs). The Eagles’ splits with and with out Johnson final season (the place it could have ranked throughout all the 2021 season in parentheses):
• With: 34 % strain fee allowed (16), 2.43 yards earlier than contact per carry (1)
• With out: 46.7 % strain fee allowed (32), 1.6 yards earlier than contact per carry (10)
The Eagles — the rare Super Bowl contender in the mix for a top-10 draft pick — have to win to relaxation some starters subsequent week, and stacking the field and forcing Andy Dalton to beat you is all the time enjoyable.
The choose: Eagles -6.5
The Bucs held on to beat the Cardinals final week, and so they wouldn’t have beat anyone else besides a workforce quarterbacked by Trace McSorley. The Bucs can’t rating and have hit the beneath 11 occasions, tying for a league excessive and essentially the most cases in Tom Brady’s profession. His solely different time hitting the beneath 11 occasions was with the 2018 Patriots.
However the previous man can nonetheless sling it with the sport on the road. The Buccaneers rank ninth in EPA per play when in no-huddle conditions and twenty ninth once they’re not.
The Panthers still have playoff dreams as a result of they’re taking part in small ball with Sam Darnold: 34.1 % of his throws haven’t traveled previous the road of scrimmage. That’s up from 20.9 % in the course of the earlier 4 years of his profession.
The betting line has been wager down by 4 factors, and I don’t belief Darnold. Plus, the Bucs ought to be capable to run the ball and if it’s shut, the previous man will pull it out.
The choose: Buccaneers -3
This one seems too straightforward, because the Commanders have a a lot better protection and can be capable to run the ball towards the Browns. Carson Wentz is starting again for the Commanders and that shouldn’t be a deal-breaker, particularly if he learns the apparent lesson to throw extra to Terry McLaurin. McLaurin was focused on 27.6 % of his routes with Taylor Heinicke, in comparison with simply 15.2 % with Wentz earlier than that.
As for the Browns, they’re a multitude and it’s hard to have much hope for the future, not to mention Sunday. Deshaun Watson ranks forty first out of 42 certified QBs in EPA per dropback since getting back from his suspension. That’s forward of solely Colt McCoy. Earlier Browns starter Jacoby Brissett ranks twelfth.
The choose: Commanders -2
I have to cease messing with Lovie Smith. The Texans have coated three in a row and are 3-0 towards the boy marvel, Trevor Lawrence. Actually, since 2020, the Texans are 5-0 versus the Jags (4-1 ATS) and 5-37-1 towards the remainder of the league.
The sport additionally doesn’t imply a lot to the new Jaguars, who have to beat the Titans subsequent week to win the division.
The choose: Texans +4.5
The Derek Carr period is over after nine years and the Jarrett Stidham period is right here for the Raiders for 2 weeks. He may have a painful day behind an overmatched offensive line towards tackle monster Nick Bosa and this powerful 49ers protection.
The Raiders protection shall be with out injured Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman and it wasn’t good with them. The 49ers may have loads of explosive performs working and throwing the ball (their explosive go fee with Brock Purdy is 15.7 % and really up from once they had Jimmy Garoppolo — 15.6 %). Since Week 13, Purdy is tied for tenth in completions of 20 or extra yards with 10, placing him forward of Brady (9), Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers (all 8), amongst others.
Did we point out that many of the followers in Las Vegas shall be sporting crimson?
The choose: 49ers -10
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The Zach Wilson period can also be over, and all people is admittedly enthusiastic about Mike White. And a part of that’s how dangerous Wilson was. There have been 56 QBs drafted within the first spherical throughout this century which have began at the very least 20 video games. Amongst that group, Wilson ranks 53rd in EPA per dropback, forward of solely Blaine Gabbert, Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell.
Now, whereas the Jets still have a path to the playoffs, I’m not positive about White as a street favourite in Seattle The Seahawks have been on a steep downward trajectory however I nonetheless think about Geno Smith — who is not regressing. Whereas his completion share has dropped from 73.1 % (Weeks 1-9) to 67.7 % (since Weeks 10), his off-target fee has truly dropped — from 6.7 % (tied for finest in league from Weeks 1-9) to five.2 % (finest within the league since Week 10). A part of that’s Seahawks receivers have dropped eight passes since Week 10.
The choose: Seahawks +1.5
The Packers’ unconvincing resurgence continues, and although I’m not positive how they cease Dalvin Cook and Danielle Hunter is finally emerging, I can’t presumably choose the Vikings once more.
Inexperienced Bay ranks eighth in pressuring the quarterback, and Kirk Cousins is definitely higher at holding up this season than he has ever been.
Cousins has been hit greater than any QB within the NFL this season, and has a 51.3 % completion fee beneath strain with 7.46 YPA, 14.53 yards per completion and is throwing at or previous the sticks 54.5 % of the time. Evaluate that to a 49.8 % completion fee from 2018 to 2021, with a 5.96 YPA, 11.97 yards per completion, and he threw at or previous the sticks 44.7 % of the time.
Nonetheless, if the Vikings are 3.5-point underdogs, they’ll lose by 4. Rodgers solely needs one good knee to get the win.
The choose: Packers -3.5
We talked about earlier how a lot better the Chargers are with Williams. Listed below are Herbert’s stats when he has each Williams and Keenan Allen: 77.8 % completion fee, 7.94 YPA, 35.3 % first down fee (would rank ninth), 49.6 % success fee (would rank fifth).
When he doesn’t have one or each of these guys, the numbers drop to a 65.6 % completion fee, 6.41 YPA, 29.2 % first-down fee (would rank twenty eighth), 43.3 % success fee (would rank twenty third).
Baker Mayfield, in the meantime, doesn’t have these sorts of weapons and shall be going through a workforce that cares this week, in contrast to final week’s rout of the Broncos. Since their Week 8 bye, the suddenly well-rounded Chargers defense ranks twelfth in EPA per drive. Since Week 14, the beginning of their present three-game profitable streak, they rank second. The Rams should be looking ahead to a crazy offseason anyway.
The choose: Chargers -6.5
It was a pleasant second for the Steelers, getting the last-minute win over the Raiders to honor the late Franco Harris at dwelling on a blustery Christmas Eve. However it in all probability doesn’t occur if the Raiders’ Jones and Perryman don’t get harm, as their protection had Kenny Pickett and Najee Harris beneath wraps — I don’t care what Mike Tomlin says.
The Ravens are a a lot completely different animal than the Raiders and their defense is peaking. Since becoming a member of the Ravens in Week 9, Roquan Smith ranks second amongst linebackers in splash performs (29). (Splash performs are outlined as sacks, TFLs, pressures resulting in throwaways, stuffs for no achieve, interceptions, compelled fumbles, fumble recoveries, go breakups, stops on third and fourth downs.) Smith ranks first in snaps per splash play (13.2) amongst 51 certified linebackers who’ve performed 350 or extra defensive snaps since Week 9.
The Ravens gained’t want Lamar Jackson again to beat the Steelers.
The choose: Ravens -2.5
The Payments lastly pulled away in a sport late and coated a giant unfold final week, whereas the Bengals let the Patriots again right into a sport that was a blowout at one level.
The Payments are transferring the ball round extra, which is nice if you’re huge followers of Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox, however not nice for those who’re a fantasy proprietor of Stefon Diggs. He accounted for 29.6 % of Buffalo’s targets from Weeks 1 to 10, which ranked sixth. Since then, his goal share has dropped to 24.2 %, which ranks twentieth. Psst, Payments, throw the ball more to Diggs.
The Payments have by no means actually recovered from the lack of Von Miller, although, and Burrow ought to have sufficient time — even with the loss of La’el Collins — to match Allen’s manufacturing after which some.
The choose: Bengals +1.5
— TruMedia analysis courtesy of NFL editor Aaron Reiss.
(Graphic: John Bradford / The Athletic; photograph of Mike Williams: Michael Allio / Icon Sportswire / Getty Photographs)
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