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The New York Jets had been down on their luck in 2021
Yesterday, I analyzed the New York Jets’ incredibly poor luck on fumble recoveries in the course of the 2021 NFL season. Whereas researching the topic, I stumbled throughout a number of extra statistical classes during which the Jets endured brutal luck, so I wished to deliver all of them collectively to reply this query: Have been the Jets the unluckiest crew in soccer final 12 months?
We’ll be having a look at three aspects of soccer during which groups have little-to-no management over the end result: fumble restoration share, opponent discipline purpose share, and accidents.
Let’s check out how the Jets fared in these three luck-based classes and evaluate their numbers to the remainder of the NFL.
Fumble restoration share
As we broke down yesterday, the Jets truly did an outstanding job of avoiding fumbles offensively and forcing fumbles defensively. Their +12 fumble margin ranked 2nd-best within the NFL, as they’d solely 14 fumbles to their opponents’ 26.
Nonetheless, the ball hardly ever bounced the Jets’ method when it got here free. Regardless of their glorious margin of total fumbles, the Jets misplaced the identical variety of fumbles as their opponents (7 apiece). The Jets solely recovered 35.0% of all obtainable fumbles, which ranked 2nd-worst within the league.
Opponent discipline purpose share
Opponent discipline purpose kicking might be essentially the most luck-based class within the NFL. Save for the once-in-a-blue-moon blocked kick, there’s nothing a crew can do to lower the opposing kicker’s effectiveness.
The Jets had been the victims of some tremendously constant kicking final 12 months. Their opponents made 36 out of 39 discipline purpose makes an attempt, a 92.3% conversion charge, which ranked 4th-highest within the league.
That quantity is partially as a result of Jets’ dangerous protection permitting plenty of brief discipline targets that had been simpler to make. Solely two of the 39 makes an attempt had been from greater than 50 yards out, and the common distance was 35.9 yards, which is under the 2021 NFL common of 38.6.
Regardless, the Jets merely didn’t get as many breaks as they need to have. New York’s enemies had been automated on the freebies, going 23-of-24 on kicks from below 40 yards out. They even went 11-of-12 on kicks from 40 to 49 yards out.
Accidents
Ah sure, the crown jewel of luck in sports activities: accidents.
Soccer Outsiders tracks a statistic known as “Adjusted Video games Misplaced” (AGL) that estimates the overall variety of missed video games as a consequence of damage {that a} crew suffered. The statistic additionally accounts for the position of the gamers who had been injured; in different phrases, a crew’s AGL stat will likely be harm extra severely when starters miss video games than when backups miss video games.
In 2021, the Jets battled a ugly complete of 158.5 AGL, rating 2nd-worst within the NFL behind solely the Ravens (191.2). That’s 81% increased than the AGL of the common NFL crew in 2021, which was 87.7.
Rounding all of it collectively
Was there any crew within the NFL that fared as poorly in these three classes because the Jets? Let’s discover out.
The Jets positioned 2nd-worst in FR%, 4th-worst in opponent FG%, and 2nd-worst in AGL. That’s a median rating of two.7 between the three classes.
Sure, that was the worst common rating within the NFL throughout these three classes – by far. The second-worst crew was the Browns, who had a median rating of seven.3.
Right here is how the league fared in these three luck-based statistics – bear in mind, the upper the rating (the decrease the quantity), the more serious the luck:
Dangerous Luck Rank | Tm | Avg Rk | FR% Rk | OPP FG% Rk | AGL Rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | New York Jets | 2.7 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
2 | Cleveland Browns | 7.3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.3 | 1 | 10 | 14 |
4 | Detroit Lions | 9.3 | 13 | 12 | 3 |
5 | New York Giants | 10.3 | 17 | 8 | 6 |
5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10.3 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
7 | Washington Soccer Crew | 11.0 | 24 | 2 | 7 |
8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 12.3 | 8 | 5 | 24 |
9 | Denver Broncos | 12.7 | 4 | 29 | 5 |
10 | Houston Texans | 13.0 | 10 | 13 | 16 |
11 | Carolina Panthers | 13.7 | 7 | 16 | 18 |
12 | Los Angeles Rams | 14.7 | 5 | 11 | 28 |
13 | Atlanta Falcons | 15.0 | 12 | 3 | 30 |
14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 15.3 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
15 | Chicago Bears | 16.0 | 21 | 7 | 20 |
16 | Seattle Seahawks | 17.3 | 3 | 23 | 26 |
17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 17.7 | 19 | 13 | 21 |
18 | Las Vegas Raiders | 18.0 | 22 | 23 | 9 |
19 | Indianapolis Colts | 18.3 | 18 | 27 | 10 |
20 | Baltimore Ravens | 18.7 | 25 | 30 | 1 |
21 | Tennessee Titans | 19.0 | 9 | 25 | 23 |
22 | San Francisco 49ers | 19.3 | 26 | 28 | 4 |
23 | New Orleans Saints | 19.7 | 26 | 25 | 8 |
23 | Inexperienced Bay Packers | 19.7 | 23 | 17 | 19 |
25 | Minnesota Vikings | 20.3 | 31 | 18 | 12 |
26 | Arizona Cardinals | 21.7 | 32 | 22 | 11 |
27 | Buffalo Payments | 22.0 | 29 | 6 | 31 |
28 | New England Patriots | 22.7 | 14 | 32 | 22 |
29 | Kansas Metropolis Chiefs | 24.0 | 20 | 20 | 32 |
30 | Cincinnati Bengals | 24.3 | 16 | 31 | 26 |
31 | Dallas Cowboys | 25.3 | 30 | 21 | 25 |
31 | Miami Dolphins | 25.3 | 28 | 19 | 29 |
No different crew positioned bottom-four in even simply two classes, whereas the Jets positioned bottom-four in all three.
Jets followers may even be happy to see that every one three of their AFC East rivals benefitted from good luck in 2021. The Dolphins tied the Cowboys for the most effective luck in these three classes with a median rating of 25.3. The Patriots ranked fifth-best at 22.7 whereas the Payments had been sixth-best at 22.0. These groups are due for some extra misfortune in 2022, whereas the Jets are due for some higher luck.
We’ll see how the pendulum decides to swing in 2022. Each season is one other random roll of the cube; it’s by no means assured {that a} crew can have the alternative degree of luck that it did within the earlier season. A crew may be very fortunate or extraordinarily unfortunate in two consecutive seasons or much more than that. It occurs.
All we all know for sure is that this: The Jets misplaced a ton of factors on the scoreboard by means of components that had been past their management.
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